# The score against the market.

Every receipt against its own market: Bitcoin for crypto, SPY for stocks. [How to read this](https://oracle.tickerz.com/methodology#evidence)

## Result

No horizon clears p < 0.05·record since Aug 31 2026

So far the score has not been shown to predict returns either way.

## Excess return by horizon

| Horizon | Class | Measured against | Events | Mean excess | Median excess | Beat benchmark | Significance |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 24h | crypto | BTC | 104 | +1.64% | +0.36% | 56 of 104 | p = 0.49, not distinguishable from chance |
| 24h | equity | SPY | 22 | +1.09% | +0.73% | 13 of 22 | p = 0.52, not distinguishable from chance |
| 7d | crypto | BTC | 98 | +7.66% | +0.61% | 53 of 98 | p = 0.48, not distinguishable from chance |
| 7d | equity | SPY | 18 | +1.01% | +0.93% | 10 of 18 | p = 0.81, not distinguishable from chance |
| 30d | crypto | BTC | 10 | +12.03% | +1.56% | 6 of 10 | p = 0.75, not distinguishable from chance |
| 7d | crypto, ordinary day | BTC | 5337 | · | +1.85% | 58% | the comparison |
| 7d | equity, ordinary day | SPY | 608 | · | +0.69% | 56% | the comparison |

Updated 2026-10-07 11:42 UTC [The record](https://oracle.tickerz.com/receipts) [Attention fades · 3,213 spikes since 2022](https://oracle.tickerz.com/research/attention-fades)