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Agent Economy Report #1 · x402 on Base · Sep 28 to Oct 3 2026 (UTC)

# $43,028 of $161,794 was real

Of 406,243 agent payments settled on Base in 6 days, 26.6% of the dollars were organic: one wallet paying another for a service. The rest was transfers, self-dealing rings and bot fleets.

Right now on Base

No x402 payment in the last four minutes of blocks. The next read is in 15 seconds.

Payments **406,243** 6 UTC days

Gross dollars **$161,794** Every classified payment

Organic dollars **$43,028** 26.6%

## Six days, split by what counted.

- Organic
- Transfers
- Self-dealing
- Fleets

## Where the rest went

- **One-off transfers**: $91,334. A payee paid by exactly one wallet that day, $100 or more in total. Sep 28 is one $50,000 payment; Sep 30 is one wallet sending $10,000, $8,000, $7,500, $6,700, $1,500 and $1,000 to six wallets that received nothing else.
- **Self-dealing**: $25,525. About 98% of it every day is one ring of 16 to 23 wallets paying each other both ways in $20 to $50 payments, all settled through one router.
- **Single-purpose fleets**: $1,907. A payee paid by more than 50 wallets that paid nobody else, at prices within one cent.

## The daily table

| Day | Payments | Gross | Organic | Organic share | Transfers | Self-dealing | Fleets |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Sep 28 | 71,698 | $65,609 | $9,066 | 13.8% | $51,809 | $4,449 | $284 |
| Sep 29 | 82,549 | $13,485 | $8,294 | 61.5% | $713 | $3,976 | $502 |
| Sep 30 | 67,880 | $48,100 | $7,844 | 16.3% | $35,448 | $4,440 | $367 |
| Oct 1 | 53,068 | $16,940 | $11,047 | 65.2% | $740 | $5,007 | $146 |
| Oct 2 | 51,313 | $9,256 | $3,226 | 34.9% | $1,873 | $3,956 | $201 |
| Oct 3 | 79,735 | $8,405 | $3,552 | 42.3% | $750 | $3,697 | $406 |

## Method

- **Scope**: x402 payments on Base settled by any listed facilitator, including router settlements (Goldsky census, replayed from Sep 28, read Oct 4 16:26 UTC). Circle Gateway batch settlements, other chains and other payment protocols are not in this release.
- **Rule**: self-dealing, single-purpose fleets, one-payer transfers of $100 or more, and dust under $0.0001 are removed in that order; what remains is organic.
- **Prior work**: Ling, Zhou, Wu, Wang, [How Agentic Is Agentic Commerce? A Population-Scale Measurement of x402 Adoption and Authenticity](https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.12575), July 14, 2026. Over 280 days, 21.20% of x402 settlements on Base were fictitious and 63.78% internal to linked clusters.
- **Caveats**: A wallet is not a person or an agent; nothing on the chain says who holds it. The census replay finished on Oct 4; Oct 2 and Oct 3 were read after it finished. This is a first print. Later reads may differ; any revision will be published beside this one, never over it.

## Proof

- **SHA-256**: a5baeaae611f04db0d368b8e46a35815269089d2a9b219179739ffe2c0dbc4ee agent-economy-1.json (submitted 2026-10-04T18:49:46Z to a.pool and b.pool.opentimestamps.org)
- **Bitcoin**: The hash was submitted to OpenTimestamps calendars at publication and will be confirmed in a Bitcoin block.
- **Files**: [JSON](https://oracle.tickerz.com/reports/agent-economy/1/data.json) [Calendar receipt A](https://oracle.tickerz.com/reports/agent-economy-1.calendar-a.bin) [Calendar receipt B](https://oracle.tickerz.com/reports/agent-economy-1.calendar-b.bin)
- **Next release**: October 11, 2026.