# $YESNO · Prediction market volume

Dollars traded per day on Kalshi and Polymarket, added together, as DefiLlama counts each venue's notional volume.

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Newest complete period | Oct 3: $686.69M, score 12, Quiet |
| Source | DefiLlama, daily notional volume of Kalshi and Polymarket (https://defillama.com/protocols/prediction-market) |
| Terms | DefiLlama open API. Volumes are computed and published by DefiLlama; Tickerz adds the two venues once an hour. |
| Cadence | Daily, two days late |
| Grade | candidate |
| Rulebook | Rulebook v0.2, 2026-10-04, $YESNO rule v2 from 2026-10-06 |
| Linked tickers | $HOOD, $ICE, $CME, $DKNG |

## Settlement

Why this grade: Money traded on two venues, one regulated by the CFTC. Moving the number means trading, and paying the venues' fees, in public. Not for settlement yet: DefiLlama's terms bar commercial use without its written consent, and Kalshi's data terms bar building an index on its volume without Kalshi's. No source with clean terms has been found (checked Oct 5 2026).
What it costs to move: Expensive. Adding a dollar of volume means trading a dollar of contracts on Kalshi or Polymarket.
When the source is late: DefiLlama publishes a day about a day late and keeps filling it in for hours after. From Oct 6 2026 a day prints only once both venues also have the day after it, about two days late. Until then it stays open and nothing settles. A day that never lands is void.
Precision: US dollars of notional volume, as DefiLlama reports each venue, summed and rounded to the cent.

## As first published, and the proof

As first published, Oct 3 read $564.07M, on-chain in the Oct 4 proof, Bitcoin block 969,845. The number as first published is final for settlement: a revision by the source shows beside it, never over it. Proof: https://tickerz.com/api/indices/proof?day=2026-10-04
Revised: $686,685,202.00 on 2026-10-05; the number as first published stands for settlement.

## Last 30 complete periods

| Period | Level | Change | Band |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Oct 3 | $686.69M | +6.6% | Quiet |
| Oct 2 | $643.89M | +9.6% | Quiet |
| Oct 1 | $587.62M | -1.7% | Quiet |
| Sep 30 | $597.69M | +1.7% | Quiet |
| Sep 29 | $587.51M | -22.1% | Quiet |
| Sep 28 | $753.71M | -6.2% | Normal |
| Sep 27 | $803.51M | +19.8% | Elevated |
| Sep 26 | $670.94M | +6.4% | Quiet |
| Sep 25 | $630.37M | +16.1% | Quiet |
| Sep 24 | $542.94M | -5.6% | Quiet |
| Sep 23 | $575.45M | +2.8% | Quiet |
| Sep 22 | $559.82M | -21.9% | Quiet |
| Sep 21 | $716.73M | -16.4% | Normal |
| Sep 20 | $857.11M | +22.9% | Rare |
| Sep 19 | $697.62M | +20.0% | Elevated |
| Sep 18 | $581.49M | +3.5% | Quiet |
| Sep 17 | $561.88M | -1.0% | Quiet |
| Sep 16 | $567.47M | +6.1% | Quiet |
| Sep 15 | $534.67M | -20.7% | Quiet |
| Sep 14 | $674.29M | -7.4% | Normal |
| Sep 13 | $728.41M | +21.9% | Rare |
| Sep 12 | $597.77M | +15.2% | Normal |
| Sep 11 | $518.82M | -9.0% | Quiet |
| Sep 10 | $570.31M | +9.0% | Quiet |
| Sep 9 | $523.25M | +9.8% | Quiet |
| Sep 8 | $476.56M | -7.6% | Quiet |
| Sep 7 | $515.77M | -20.9% | Normal |
| Sep 6 | $652.34M | +14.7% | Elevated |
| Sep 5 | $568.89M | -2.0% | Normal |
| Sep 4 | $580.34M | +12.3% | Normal |

JSON: https://tickerz.com/api/indices/yesno

## For agents

- JSON API, no key: https://tickerz.com/docs (OpenAPI: https://tickerz.com/openapi.json)
- MCP server, Streamable HTTP, no key: https://tickerz.com/mcp
- Site summary: https://tickerz.com/llms.txt (everything in one file: https://tickerz.com/llms-full.txt; agent instructions: https://tickerz.com/agents.md)
- Signed numbers, every feed and The Tape: https://tickerz.com/oracle (each signed number with its recount: https://tickerz.com/signed)
- Plain answers about prediction market data: https://tickerz.com/answers
- Any page here in Markdown: send Accept: text/markdown, or open /md/<path>.

The Activity score measures attention, not merit. It is not a price signal: the median 7 day return after a Terminal event has been negative. Not advice.